It was an interesting day both in the news and on the market. At one point the Dow was down 110 points and oil at $71 a barrel but towards the end of the day those numbers mellowed a bit. If you follow the market like I do and you're of the technical charting frame of mind you'll notice some really interesting things. In the short term it looks like we are in a channel that is heading up, we just happen to be on the down side of hump number two and it's feasible that the market will head back to the 10800 level shortly. On the other hand, we're also in a huge banner or triangle that spans three years. This triangle is the second bubble after the huge run up to the year 2000.


This is the housing/credit bubble. It appears that we are in the end of it and that we have just breached the bottom support wall. I've included these two charts so you can see what I'm talking about. In my experience, usually watching intraday prices, when a triangle is breached it usually means that prices will head downward very quickly. So I'm watching what happens next to see if this will occur over such a large time scale and if in fact this is a triangle that I have identified. As it stands now, the price of the Dow is outside the support wall of the large triangle and if I am correct, it will not go back into it, but rather the price will head down dramatically.

New Orleans
There are some interesting things about the devastation in New Orleans, which I think we should pay close attention to. One is the willingness of state and Federal officials to strip away the civil rights of those affected via martial law, containment and in the days ahead possibly quarantine. The second thing that is interesting is how rapidly the populace turned to looting and other crimes. When something like this happen all bets are off, normal, law abiding citizens start doing the previously unthinkable. I feel that this is to expected whenever humans are placed under environmental stress and it's conceivable that we will see much more of this kind of behavior as stresses such as a possible flu pandemic or other unforeseen calamities befall us. Here's a great story by Jack London where I got my whacked-out ideas. My advice: (and I can't believe I'm saying this) but guns are looking pretty good right now. A second passport might be in order as well.


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