Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Good Time to Buy Stocks
Well the Dow finally did what I've been saying it was going to do for a long time, which is tank. It took so long to happen I'd kind of forgotten that a while ago I said the Dow would go down to the 12,000 level and look at that, we're at 11,700 this morning. Well now that we're here, I do believe that things are looking good for the market, really good in fact. Expect a rapid rise back up to where we were: 13,500 - 14,000. After that, sell, because we are indeed in a bear market and we'll blow through 11,700 like it was training pants. I'm speculating that fundamentals such as employment, housing, CDO's, carry trades, earnings, inflation, etc. will continue to erode and that it will largely be due to central bank intervention that the market will rebound. Then the Emporer's clothes will get harder and harder to see and we'll be in a pickle, as it were. I'm curious what will happen to commodities as the stock market spikes up. Will gold break $1,000 or will it take a breather? Will oil mellow out finally? I've long been a proponent that we're either headed for hyper-inflation or deflation (the bad kind, not the Wal-Mart kind) and seeing what happens to commodities in the next few months will possibly be a barometer on what the future holds regarding these two devils.
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